Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-24 2.326008 2.463962 2.614298 2.792015 2.998747 3.234822 3.529734
2025-08-31 2.170791 2.341485 2.535559 2.776779 3.075159 3.442248 3.946663
2025-09-07 2.083800 2.277307 2.504342 2.797722 3.179363 3.680666 4.435830
2025-09-14 1.962570 2.159608 2.394680 2.704993 3.120415 3.687959 4.595252
2025-09-21 1.897653 2.103674 2.353969 2.692312 3.160407 3.830660 4.986546
2025-09-28 1.826735 2.035218 2.291666 2.644105 3.143329 3.883603 5.239613
2025-10-05 1.807325 2.028960 2.306825 2.698716 3.275333 4.182354 6.037699
2025-10-12 1.799840 2.036512 2.339201 2.778156 3.452045 4.589052 7.286494
2025-10-19 1.759828 1.999706 2.309840 2.766615 3.485179 4.750150 8.070711
2025-10-26 1.729293 1.973633 2.293118 2.771421 3.543963 4.970690 9.224349
2025-11-02 1.680278 1.921184 2.237665 2.714752 3.494116 4.964381 9.627994
2025-11-09 1.646509 1.887750 2.206938 2.693212 3.501660 5.079245 10.647589
2025-11-16 1.614329 1.856477 2.179411 2.677249 3.521691 5.236716 12.218208
2025-11-23 1.585282 1.828270 2.154751 2.663769 3.544167 5.405793 14.367710
2025-11-30 1.568522 1.815882 2.151610 2.683208 3.628112 5.747998 19.698988
2025-12-07 1.521572 1.760931 2.085509 2.598742 3.508755 5.539189 18.460515
2025-12-14 1.498753 1.738454 2.065450 2.587331 3.528254 5.708280 23.668495
2025-12-21 1.467571 1.703663 2.026429 2.543285 3.480836 5.683831 26.099797
2025-12-28 1.465099 1.708301 2.044715 2.593488 3.623623 6.253436 116.284854
2026-01-04 1.468585 1.721176 2.075432 2.666258 3.823533 7.131145 NaN
2026-01-11 1.449818 1.702213 2.057904 2.655804 3.845223 7.398897 NaN
2026-01-18 1.435771 1.689527 2.049333 2.660266 3.900397 7.837648 NaN
2026-01-25 1.408096 1.656898 2.009643 2.608485 3.823654 7.677539 NaN